Brexit

[loringa]

Both Brexiteers and former Remainers may find this analysis of interest. It was written by a colleague whose background is in the City:

There is a view emerging in the City that Brexit could be a “hard “ Brexit in all but name. A new analysis of the UK’s Brexit deal has dubbed the agreement with the European Union “less patisserie department than thin gruel.” A research note by analysts at JP Morgan (JPM) published on Monday read said that the “deal provides for zero-tariff, zero-quota trade in goods... but leaves significant regulatory and administrative impediments across both [the] goods and services trade.” It notes that future autonomy from the EU in trade and regulation is still ill-defined and that the long-run negative impact on UK GDP could amount to a 5% to 10% knock in comparison to where the economy might be with EU membership. The EU and UK struck an 11th-hour free trade agreement on Christmas Eve to avert a no deal Brexit when the transition period ended on 1 January. However, financial services were not covered by the agreement. The EU has granted the UK temporary waivers in two areas — clearing and securities settlement. Both sides have agreed to try and reach a separate, fuller agreement covering financial services by March. Warnings have come from all sides about the potential future relationship of the UK with the EU. Last week, the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey said the UK should avoid becoming a financial services “rule taker” from the EU at all costs, even if it means failing to strike a deal covering the sector. The JP Morgan analysis also comes as a new survey by the manufacturers’ organisation Make UK, released on Monday morning, suggested almost half of its members are worried about customs delays, seeing them as their biggest risk. Another 39% said the increased costs of complying with regulation are the biggest risk they face, and 14% are worried most about major customers relocating outside the UK.

Concerns over the new trading relationship between Britain and the European Union (EU) have clouded the outlook for manufacturers as they enter 2021. According to a new study by manufacturing group Make UK and accounting firm PwC, manufacturers have expressed fears over the attractiveness of the UK for both investment and talent moving forward. The survey shows that a third of firms believe the investment prospects for UK businesses will decrease having left the EU with just 18% of companies believing they will increase. Additionally, 26% think exports to the EU will fall, while just 16% believe they will increase. A third of respondents also feel that Britain’s ability to attract international talent will decrease with just 11% believing the UK will be a more attractive destination outside the bloc. Make UK says that this potentially hinders the government’s new immigration system which is specifically designed to encourage the best talent to come to the country. But, despite the worries over the new trading relationship with the EU and the attractiveness of the UK almost 48% of companies see a significant or moderate improvement for manufacturing in 2021. This is in contrast to how they see the prospects for the UK economy. 56% of firms expect the economy to deteriorate, while 46% are more negative about the prospects for the global economy. The research indicates that 47% of companies see customs delays as the biggest risk while concerns over national and local lockdowns were the second biggest risk (46%). Meanwhile, increased costs of regulation is reported as the biggest risk by 39% while over one in 10 firms (14%) also believe a relocation of a major customer out of the UK is their biggest risk.

Still, I'm sure the sunlit uplands are just over the horizon ... It is, after all, what we were promised by the various Leave campaigns and their leaders, including the current Prime Minister!

[rockfreak]

The misgivings of the City are well founded. The financial pages report that six billion euros-worth of trades fled the City on January 2. The trouble is that it will probably be the more kosher end of financial activities that go while the dodgier end will stay and further endorse London's reputation as a money laundering centre. I'm not sure about Andrew Bailey's concern about London being a rule taker from the EU. Some might have preferred some more stringent rules when the Lawsonite deregulated City sparked disastrous booms and busts in 1990 and 2007/8.

[rockfreak]

We know a little more now about who was funding the Leave campaign. The City money that went to Remain was apparently largely from the more respectable end of the financial sector - banks, pension funds, insurance, etc (maybe even Banker Brown). The Leave donations appear to have come largely from hedge funds and private equity. In other words, the dodgier, asset-stripping, tax avoiding, get-rich-quick wallahs that, in another age, Edward Heath called the unacceptable face of capitalism. And guess what. Tax exile Aaron Banks and his grinning little sidekick Andy Wigmore have now moved the Vote Leave campaign HQ to Ireland in order to keep it in the EU! You couldn't make this stuff up, could you. The Irish government are apparently scratching their heads trying to work out legal ways to kick them back out again.

[AMP]

The Vote Leave Campaign thingy can surely be wound up now?

More importantly, did anyone pay Farage to endorse Blair as the Covid Tsar?

[Pe.A]

In my case, I didn't want Brexit then, still don't think it's a good idea now, and I'm still waiting for someone to tell me a single, quantifiable, tangible benefit of it that directly improves an aspect of my life that the EU was solely responsible for making unbearable. Before anyone says "Sovereignty", I class that as an intangible benefit since I'm unable to pay rent or buy beer with it.

It's an academic matter for me these days, since I'm leaving the country in a week or so. One benefit of being a "citizen of nowhere", as one of our delightful former PMs put it, is that when an opportunity presents itself, the fact it may be in another country is irrelevant. This move would have likely happened anyway in the next few years, but Brexit has been a contributing factor in the shortening of our timeframes.

Huge financial demands placed on our infrastructure (example the requirement to rebuild every road bridge to take weights of 44 tonnes instead of 35 tonnes

Would that, and other infrastructural demands, have needed to be done anyway....?

[scrub]

The Vote Leave Campaign thingy can surely be wound up now?

Nah, there's always more grifting to be done. It's been a success for the backers and the basic campaign principles can be re-used, even if the publicly stated goal has to change.

As long as people are unhappy with the type of Brexit they got, Vote Leave will be an ever present entity. Actually, as long as the EU exists, Vote Leave will be an ever present entity.

[sejintenej]

Huge financial demands placed on our infrastructure (example the requirement to rebuild every road bridge to take weights of 44 tonnes instead of 35 tonnes

Would that, and other infrastructural demands, have needed to be done anyway....?

Some but not necessarily the same ones - I used the example of having to rate bridges for 44 tonne EU lorries as against the old 36 tonnes. Another which could have justifiably been delayed could have been putting kilometer distance posts on major roads. (Most people don't realise they are even there!) The only requirement was the undertaking to convert to metric at a "convenient date" laid down sometime in the 1800s when zero longitude was fixed at Greenwich and not Paris.

[sejintenej]

The Vote Leave Campaign thingy can surely be wound up now?

Nah, there's always more grifting to be done. It's been a success for the backers and the basic campaign principles can be re-used, even if the publicly stated goal has to change.

As long as people are unhappy with the type of Brexit they got, Vote Leave will be an ever present entity. Actually, as long as the EU exists, Vote Leave will be an ever present entity.

True - we still have flat earthians!!!!! (oh and don't forget that Neil Armstrong stepped down on a bit of US desert on July 20, 1969!)

[AMP]

The Vote Leave Campaign thingy can surely be wound up now?

Nah, there's always more grifting to be done. It's been a success for the backers and the basic campaign principles can be re-used, even if the publicly stated goal has to change.

As long as people are unhappy with the type of Brexit they got, Vote Leave will be an ever present entity. Actually, as long as the EU exists, Vote Leave will be an ever present entity.

Agreed although Farage has moved on.
Having helped the workers in Sunderland take back their sovereignty, he is now, for £199, helping the white collars "Take back control of your cash"

[AMP]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... shop-in-eu

Absolutely damning.

Far from taking back control, firms will need to invest in the EU just to survive and lay off UK jobs to do it

[loringa]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... shop-in-eu

Absolutely damning.

Far from taking back control, firms will need to invest in the EU just to survive and lay off UK jobs to do it

Another Brexit shambles buteven the Brexiteers surely cannot be surprised by this? Why would the EU ever cut a deal with the UK in which we were better off outside the EU? They didn't want us to leave and the sure as anything don't want anyone else to leave. The EU will do everything it can to ensure that being outside the EU is worse than being inside the organisation, something that was entirely foreseeable and, indeed, foreseen. Brexit is rapidly proving to be the economic disaster we all knew it would be. Thanks so much to all of you who voted to leave ...

[AMP]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... shop-in-eu

Absolutely damning.

Far from taking back control, firms will need to invest in the EU just to survive and lay off UK jobs to do it

Another Brexit shambles buteven the Brexiteers surely cannot be surprised by this? Why would the EU ever cut a deal with the UK in which we were better off outside the EU? They didn't want us to leave and the sure as anything don't want anyone else to leave. The EU will do everything it can to ensure that being outside the EU is worse than being inside the organisation, something that was entirely foreseeable and, indeed, foreseen. Brexit is rapidly proving to be the economic disaster we all knew it would be. Thanks so much to all of you who voted to leave ...

Yes, we owe them a debt of gratitude.
Maybe we could triple lock their pensions in case things don't work out?

[scrub]

Another Brexit shambles buteven the Brexiteers surely cannot be surprised by this? Why would the EU ever cut a deal with the UK in which we were better off outside the EU? They didn't want us to leave and the sure as anything don't want anyone else to leave. The EU will do everything it can to ensure that being outside the EU is worse than being inside the organisation, something that was entirely foreseeable and, indeed, foreseen. Brexit is rapidly proving to be the economic disaster we all knew it would be. Thanks so much to all of you who voted to leave ...

That suggests some sort of malice, and while I'm sure you could probably find some people in Europe who actually want this, most people I know, speak to, and live near, just don't think of it like that. Actually, most of them just don't think about it much at all. For most of them, even those who have extensive dealings in the UK, it's seen as a bit of a shame but "oh well, never mind, we'll just have to work with it".
The UK's PM brought up the idea that the EU wanted to administer some form of "punishment beating", but all that's happening at the moment is that the EU is enforcing the rules of the single market that the UK helped draft and, in the case of Dame Thatcher, were enthusiastic proponents of when they were in it.

The UK wanted to be out of the single market and customs union, have nothing to do with the ECJ, and have a sparse "Canada-style" deal so that they could diverge from the EU in terms of workers rights, environmental and food standards, and to negotiate their own trade deals.
They have exactly what they wanted.
If you're outside the CU and SM then you are a third country, and if you want to access the SM, you have to play by the rules. Some of which you set.

The UK government valued sovereignty above all else in their negotiations, all while telling people that things would be exactly as they used to be. The only way that could happen is if the EU became a subsidiary of a new UK empire and was directly ruled by Westminster.

[AMP]

Another Brexit shambles buteven the Brexiteers surely cannot be surprised by this? Why would the EU ever cut a deal with the UK in which we were better off outside the EU? They didn't want us to leave and the sure as anything don't want anyone else to leave. The EU will do everything it can to ensure that being outside the EU is worse than being inside the organisation, something that was entirely foreseeable and, indeed, foreseen. Brexit is rapidly proving to be the economic disaster we all knew it would be. Thanks so much to all of you who voted to leave ...

That suggests some sort of malice, and while I'm sure you could probably find some people in Europe who actually want this, most people I know, speak to, and live near, just don't think of it like that. Actually, most of them just don't think about it much at all. For most of them, even those who have extensive dealings in the UK, it's seen as a bit of a shame but "oh well, never mind, we'll just have to work with it".
The UK's PM brought up the idea that the EU wanted to administer some form of "punishment beating", but all that's happening at the moment is that the EU is enforcing the rules of the single market that the UK helped draft and, in the case of Dame Thatcher, were enthusiastic proponents of when they were in it.

The UK wanted to be out of the single market and customs union, have nothing to do with the ECJ, and have a sparse "Canada-style" deal so that they could diverge from the EU in terms of workers rights, environmental and food standards, and to negotiate their own trade deals.
They have exactly what they wanted.
If you're outside the CU and SM then you are a third country, and if you want to access the SM, you have to play by the rules. Some of which you set.

The UK government valued sovereignty above all else in their negotiations, all while telling people that things would be exactly as they used to be. The only way that could happen is if the EU became a subsidiary of a new UK empire and was directly ruled by Westminster.

There's no need to punish us for leaving because we haven't left the SM or CU.
Northern Ireland is still part of the UK
It's just we no longer have a seat at the table and now have to do as we are told.
It's called taking back control

[Avon]

Northern Ireland is still part of the UK

Give it a few years...

I’d always hoped that we’d flush Ulster as a medieval aberration on the UK, not end up envying it as it passed to Eire and the EU.